Gold fell sharply on Thursday, July 24, shedding roughly $82 per troy ounce — nearly 2% — to close at $4,050.60 on the New York spot market. The selloff was triggered by a surge in crude oil prices past $100 per barrel, stoking inflation fears and reinforcing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated well into the second half of 2025.
Oil Shock Reignites Inflation Anxiety
Brent crude crossed $100 per barrel for the first time since late May after Houthi militants in Yemen claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers transiting the Red Sea. The incident raised concerns that supply disruptions could spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz, affecting a broader slice of global energy flows. Rising oil prices feed directly into inflation readings, which in turn limits the room central banks have to cut borrowing costs — a dynamic that weighs heavily on non-yielding assets like gold.
Treasury Yields and the Dollar Gain Ground
The knock-on effect through bond markets was swift. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed four basis points to 4.699%, its highest level since January 2025, while the 2-year yield rose more than five basis points to 4.353%. The 30-year bond yield reached 5.167%. The Dollar Index also strengthened, adding more than 0.3% to close at 101.44. A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced gold more expensive for foreign buyers, adding another layer of selling pressure on the metal.
Fed Rate Expectations Shift Sharply
Market pricing for a Fed rate hike at the September meeting jumped from 68% to 83% in a single session, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Traders expect the Fed to hold rates steady at next week's meeting but anticipate a hawkish tone in the accompanying statement. As analyst Jim Wyckoff of American Gold Exchange noted, rising yields are "the enemy" of gold bulls because precious metals offer no income stream to compete with higher bond returns. Any surprise — dovish or hawkish — from the Fed could move markets materially in either direction.
Silver Takes a Harder Hit
Silver underperformed gold in the session, falling 3.4% to $57.78 per ounce on the spot market. Silver carries a larger industrial-use component than gold, meaning it is doubly exposed when both monetary tightening fears and growth concerns are present simultaneously. COMEX August gold futures settled at $4,050.20, down 2.5% on the day, confirming the breadth of the move across the complex.
ETF Flows Offer a Counterpoint
Despite the price decline, institutional demand through exchange-traded products remained resilient. SPDR Gold Trust — the world's largest gold ETF — recorded its fourth consecutive session of net buying, adding 1.1 tonnes on Thursday to bring its total holdings to 1,009 tonnes. The fund has accumulated 10 tonnes of net purchases since the start of the week. This steady accumulation suggests that longer-term investors view the current pullback as a buying opportunity rather than a structural reversal, even as short-term traders reduce exposure on rate concerns.
Vietnam Gold Price Context
For Vietnamese savers and retail investors, the global move translated into a concrete decline. At 6:50 a.m. Vietnam time on July 24, spot gold traded near $4,049 per ounce, equivalent to approximately VND 129.3 million per luong — down VND 2.6 million from the prior morning — based on Vietcombank's USD sell rate of 26,500 dong. The VND/USD rate itself held steady, meaning the domestic gold price decline tracked the international move almost exactly.
Investor Takeaway
The session is a textbook illustration of how a geopolitical supply shock can quickly become a monetary policy event. Oil disruptions in the Red Sea pushed energy prices higher, bond markets repriced the Fed path upward, and gold — sensitive to real yields — bore the cost. With the Fed meeting days away and crude supply uncertainty unresolved, gold faces a binary near-term risk: a hawkish Fed statement could extend the selloff, while any de-escalation in the Gulf or a softer Fed tone could swiftly reverse it. The persistent ETF inflows suggest institutional allocators are not abandoning the metal, but short-term volatility is likely to remain elevated until the rate path becomes clearer.
